Last week, I had the opportunity to attend a talk by Professor Mauro Guillen in San Juan. He is a very good speaker who shared important information on global trends.

Prof. Guillen says that in 2030, the world as we know it will cease to exist. This is not a long-term possibility, it is a short-term reality. Fourteen years go fast. How are you adapting?

There are major trends that have been happening for decades in the economy and how people behave.

Where people live, how long they live, how many children they have, what role they play in society. It is not all at like it was fifty years ago. It is impossible to summarize the 90 minute talk in a short essay. Here I share some of the points that really caught my attention. They are just my notes, not the full information. Each merits learning more. The professor has published two books Global Turning Points and Emerging Markets Rule. He teaches at Wharton.

One Major Opportunity for Puerto Rico: attract Chinese students and professionals to learn Spanish in Puerto Rico. Universities in Spain are experiencing significant growth in students from China coming to study (any discipline, but often business) in Spanish. China is massively growing its investment in Latin America. That creates employment and opportunities for the Chinese people, and they are learning Spanish to take advantage of the opportunity.

If Puerto Rico can attract a small percentage of this market, there could be a significant positive economic impact. They students may not stay in Puerto Rico, but to have them here while studying could be an entire industry.

1. Our twentieth century assumptions are no longer valid.
2. Trend with massive impact – women are having fewer children in ALL countries. In some cases this means they went from an average of 6 to an average of 4; or an average of 4 to an average of two. Across the board, the total number of children is going down.
   • The reason for this is that women now have access to education, can get jobs and have careers. At first was just jobs that paid for certain hours of work, but now women have ambitious careers that has a significant impact of family planning and dynamics.
   • Existence and access to birth control; fiftyish years ago wasn’t a possibility.
3. As the population ages, stocks go down. These statistics are highly correlated. As people age, they sell stocks to get cash or invest in lower risk options. More importantly, they stop consuming. Elderly people purchase the day to day but no longer make large purchases like cars, houses, etc.
4. There are many countries that will soon have more people over 65 than under.
5. Cities – there is still a massive movement to cities. Globally, major cities are growing rapidly. This leads to five big needs. Food, water, infrastructure, leisure, and digital media
6. If you look at the back of your phone, there are two lines of text. One is for the FCC and the other is for the TCC. This is information regulated by the US and German governments to be included. The big markets make the rules of the game. Within ten to fifteen years, India and China will be the larger consumer markets. They will make the rules of the game.
7. For years there have been Chinese tourists visiting Europe. For the first time this year, they are seeing significant number of visitors from India. Large expansion of the Indian middle class and they like to spend more, on average, on travel that Europeans and US.
8. By 2020 there will be more female millionaires in the world than male.
   In China, due to the one child policy, there is a deficit of 9 million women to men.
   Services are greatest areas of opportunity.
   • Insurance, health, education
   • Note: these are areas where women spend more. Women will have more than half the money. Impact on politics? Where and to whom will women give their money?
9. Currency is perceived value. Dali check story – he made his own money! Google it 🙂
10. US is around 20% of the global economy. 62% of currently reserves are in US$. China is biggest in global economy but there currency is not used outside of China.